Forecasting the Population with a Foreign Background in the Netherlands Joint Eurostat-UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Vienna: Statistics Netherlands Division for Social and Spatial Statistics Department for Statistical Analysis, pp.21-23, 2005. ,
Population Projections, Australia Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2006. ,
Immigration and Ethnic Change in Low-Fertility Countries: A Third Demographic Transition, Population and Development Review, vol.19, issue.7, pp.401-446, 2006. ,
DOI : 10.1093/oxfordjournals.molbev.a004160
Divergent Patterns in the Ethnic Transformation of Societies, Population and Development Review, vol.61, issue.2, pp.449-478, 2009. ,
DOI : 10.1787/migr_outlook-2002-en
Projections of the Ethnic Minority Populations of the United Kingdom 2006-2056, Population and Development Review, vol.50, issue.3-4, pp.441-486, 2006. ,
DOI : 10.1136/bmj.314.7082.705
On the Move? Labour Migration in Times of Recession. What Can We Learn from the Past, 2009. ,
Migration as a Factor in Population Reproduction, Research Papers of the Vienna Institute of Demography, vol.1, pp.1-57, 2007. ,
Can Liberal States Control Unwanted Migration?, The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, vol.11, issue.2, pp.17-30, 1994. ,
DOI : 10.2307/2546878
Unguarded Gates: A History of America's Immigration Crisis, 2004. ,
, References
Shrinking-Population Economics: Lessons from Japan. Transl. by Miller Br, 2006. ,
The Implications of Demographic Change for Russian Politics and Security. Weatherhead Center for International Affairs Conference, Harvard University , Health and Demography in the States of the Former Soviet Union, p.38, 2005. ,
Population Growth and Economic Growth: Some More Correlations, Population and Development Review, vol.20, issue.1, pp.153-165, 1994. ,
DOI : 10.2307/2137634
Economic Growth, 2003. ,
DOI : 10.1007/978-1-349-27904-3_14
, , 2004.
, Démographie: analyse et synthèse. V. Histoire du Peuplement et Prévisions, pp.9-31
Demographic Ageing and Population Decline in Twenty-First-Century ? Germany: Consequences for the Systems of Social Insurance, Population Bulletin of the United Nations. Policy Responses to Population Decline and Ageing, vol.4445, pp.103-134, 2002. ,
The Dilemma Posed by Japan's Population Decline, Electronic Journal of Contemporary Japanese Studies. Discussion Paper, vol.5, 2004. ,
La crepuscule de l'occident, 1996. ,
A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World, 2007. ,
Managing the Health Effects of Climate Change. The Lancet 373, pp.1693-1733, 2009. ,
Population Decline and Ageing in Japan ? The Social Consequences, 2007. ,
Replacement-Level Fertility: The Implausible Endpoint of the Demographic Transition. The Continuing Demographic Transition, pp.94-110, 1997. ,
On Development, Demography and Climate Change: The End of the World as We Know it?, Population and Environment, vol.2, issue.1, pp.117-149, 2005. ,
DOI : 10.1017/CBO9781139168045
, Incredible Shrinking Countries, Economist. Economist, 2006.
Endogenous fertility, mortality and economic growth: Can a Malthusian framework account for the conflicting historical trends in population?, Journal of Asian Economics, vol.16, issue.5, pp.789-806, 2005. ,
DOI : 10.1016/j.asieco.2005.08.013
London State of the Environment Report, 2010. ,
Population Policies and Movements in Europe, 1940. ,
Numbering the People. Farnborough: Saxon House URL: http:// www.unece.org/stats/documents, 1973. ,
, 1 st Report of Session 2007?08: The Economic Impact of Immigration, House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs II. Evidence. HL Paper 82?II, p.514, 2008.
Population decline and infrastructure: The case of the German water supply system, Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, vol.2007, pp.167-191, 2007. ,
DOI : 10.1553/populationyearbook2007s167
The Graying of the Great Powers, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 2008. ,
, Population Decline, vol.40
Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change, Demography, vol.32, issue.4, pp.543-555, 1995. ,
DOI : 10.2307/2061674
The rise and fall of the great powers, Business Horizons, vol.31, issue.6, 1988. ,
DOI : 10.1016/0007-6813(88)90030-4
Some Economic Consequences of a Declining Population, Population and Development Review, vol.4, issue.3, pp.13-17, 1936. ,
DOI : 10.2307/1972863
Demographic Change and the Sources of International Conflict. Demography and National Security, pp.62-105, 2001. ,
High Suburban Fertility: Evidence from Four Northern European Countries, Demographic Research, vol.21, issue.31, pp.915-944, 2009. ,
DOI : 10.4054/DemRes.2009.21.31
URL : https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol21/31/21-31.pdf
Population Homeostasis and English Demographic History, Journal of Interdisciplinary History, vol.15, issue.4, pp.635-660, 1985. ,
DOI : 10.2307/204274
Population Dynamics of Humans and Other Animals, Demography, vol.24, issue.4, pp.443-465, 1987. ,
DOI : 10.2307/2061385
A Labour Shortage Can Be a Blessing, Financial Times, 2006. ,
Effects of household dynamics on resource consumption and biodiversity, Nature, vol.50, issue.6922, pp.530-533, 2003. ,
DOI : 10.2307/2060962
The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity and What to Do about it, 2004. ,
Determinants of human population growth, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, vol.357, issue.1425, pp.1197-1210, 2002. ,
DOI : 10.1098/rstb.2002.1121
An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1802. ,
, US National Report on Population and the Environment, 2006.
Population Weights in the International Order, Population and Development Review, vol.36, issue.1, pp.411-442, 1999. ,
DOI : 10.1017/S0020818300032628
JAPAN'S TRANSITION FROM THE DEMOGRAPHIC BONUS TO THE DEMOGRAPHIC ONUS, Asian Population Studies, vol.1, issue.2, pp.207-226, 2005. ,
DOI : 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2001.00065.x
The Economics of a Declining Population, 1939. ,
The Economic Consequences of Zero Population Growth. Lloyd's, Bank Review, vol.124, pp.14-29, 1977. ,
Towards long-term population decline: a discussion of relevant issues, European Journal of Population / Revue europ??enne de D??mographie, vol.50, issue.4, pp.189-207, 2007. ,
DOI : 10.1017/CBO9781316036495
The End of Food, 2008. ,
The Great Population Spike and After. Reflections on the 21 st Century, 1998. ,
, Royal Commission on Population, 1949.
Attitudes towards population trends and population policy in the Netherlands, compared with some data from other western European countries, European Demographic Information Bulletin, vol.51, issue.5, pp.141-149, 1983. ,
DOI : 10.2307/1531928
General Theory of Population. Transl. by C. Campos, 1969. ,
Europe submergée: Sud-Nord dans trente ans, Ch. 8 Nos trois defaites demographiques, pp.125-136, 1987. ,
Gibt es Alternativen zu der für Deutschland erwarteten Bevölkerungsentwicklung? (Are there Alternatives to the Expected Population Trends in Germany?) Zeitschrift für, Bevölkerungswissenschaft, vol.23, issue.3, pp.335-341, 1998. ,
The growing gap between rich and poor countries: A proposed explanation, World Development, vol.24, issue.8, pp.1379-1384, 1996. ,
DOI : 10.1016/0305-750X(96)00037-X
, American Journal of Physics, vol.53, issue.3, 1981.
DOI : 10.1119/1.14144
Le vieillissement demographique dans les regions de dépopulation en Bulgarie du Nord-Ouest. (Demographic Ageing in Depopulated Areas of North-West Bulgaria) Les territoires face au vieillissement en Europe ? géographie, politique, prospective, Areas Facing Ageing in Europe: Geography, Politics, Outlook). Paris: Ellipses Marketing. Collection Carrefours, 2006. ,
Fear of Population Decline, 1985. ,
, World Urbanization Prospects. The 2001 Revision. Data Tables and Highlights, United Nations. United Nations, 2002.
, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, United Nations, 2009.
Subreplacement fertility in the West before the baby boom: Past and current perspectives, Population Studies, vol.42, issue.1, pp.1-18, 2010. ,
DOI : 10.1126/science.304.5668.207c
Longing for the Good Life: Understanding Emigration from a High-Income Country, Population and Development Review, vol.15, issue.1, pp.37-66, 2007. ,
DOI : 10.1037/h0030478
Ireland. Population Policy in Developed Countries, pp.8-41, 1974. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00668058
Political Demography, Demographic Engineering, 2001. ,
How Can a Homeostatic Perspective Enhance Demographic Transition Theory?, Population Studies, vol.53, issue.2, pp.117-128, 1999. ,
The Population of England 1541?1871: A Reconstruction, 1981. ,
, References
Russia and the Islamic World: The Dynamics of Changes in Demographic and Political Potentials, Russian (????????????? ?. ?. ?????? ? ????????? ???: ???????? ????????? ???????????????? ? ????????????? ???????????. ??????????? ????????????, pp.3-31, 2008. ,
Russia in Figures, 2010. ,
Strategy of Demographic Development of Russia. Moscow: TsSP, ???.). ????????? ???????????????? ???????? ??????. ?.: ???, 2005. ,
Integration of Migrants: Challenges, Policy, Social Practice, Russian (???????? ?. ?. ?????????? ?????????: ??????, ????????, ?????????? ????????, pp.34-50, 2011. ,
Is Demography a Destiny? Russia in Global Policy, pp.40-54, 2010. ,
Social Policy in Modern Russia: Analysis, Evaluation, Prospection . Moscow: Publishing House 'Prospekt, 2011. ,
, ?????????? ???????? ? ??????????? ??????: ??????, ??????, ?????? ? ???????. ?.: «????????»)
, References
Demographic Prospects of Russia till 2050. Russia's Population Moscow: Vysshaya shkola ekonomiki, Russian (??????? ?., ?????????? ?. ??????????????? ??????????? ?????? ?? 2050 ?. ????????? ??????, pp.265-288, 2006. ,
It Will Be Late in 10 Years. Population Policy of the Russian Federation: Challenges and Scenarios. Moscow: Institut nauchno-obschestvennoy ekspertizy ? RANKhiGS pri Prezidente RF ? Rabochaya gruppa 'Semeynaya politika i detstvo' Ekspertnogo soveta pri Pravitelstve RF, ????? 10 ??? ????? ??????. ??????????????? ???????? ?????????? ?????????: ?????? ? ????????. ?.: ???????? ??????-???????????? ?????????? ? ??????? ??? ?????????? ?? ? ??????? ?????? '???????? ???????? ? ???????' ??????????? ?????? ??? ????????????? ??), 2014. ,
, Critical 10 Years. Demographic Policies of the Russian Federation: Successes and Challenges, 2015.
Ecological, Social and Economic Imitating Model: Human and Informational Aspects, Russian (????????? ?. ?. ? ??. ???????-?????????-????????????? ???????????? ??????: ???????????? ? ?????????????? ???????. ?????????????? ????????, pp.43-51, 2001. ,
, U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (National Center for Health Statistics Series, 1966.
Alcohol Abuse in the Russian Federation: Socioeconomic Consequences and Counteraction Measures Report of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation. Moscow: Obshchestvennaya Palata Rossiyskoy Federatsii, ??????????????? ????????? ? ?????????? ?????????: ?????????????????????? ??????????? ? ???? ???????????????. ?????? ???????????? ?????? ?????????? ?????????. ?.: ???????????? ?????? ??), 2009. ,
Alcohol Monopolies and Public Health. Evidence from International Research. Paper presented at the International Seminar on Alcohol Retail Monopolies, pp.27-29, 2007. ,
Russian Demographic Crisis: Factors, Models, Counter-crisis Measures Mathematical Modeling of Social Dynamics ?????????? ??????????????? ??????: ???????, ??????, ???? ???????, ?oscow: KomKniga/URSS, pp.117-191, 2005. ,
Alcohol and Narcotics as Factors of the Demographic Crisis, Russian (????????? ?. ?., ???????? ?. ?. ???????? ? ????????? ??? ?????? ???????????????? ???????. ??????????????? ????????????, pp.104-112, 2006. ,
DOI : 10.2753/SOR1061-0154470302
Alcohol and Narcotics as the Major Factors of Demographic Crisis in Russia, ???????? ? ????????? ??? ????????? ??????? ???????????????? ???????, pp.41-57, 2006. ,
Potential of Alcohol Policy as a Factor of Bringing down the Mortality in Russia Mortality in Countries of the Former USSR. Fifteen Years after Break-up: Change or Continuity?, Institute for Demographic and Social Studies, pp.243-259, 2006. ,
, ???????????? ?????????: ?????? ? ??????????. ??? ??????? ??? ????????????, pp.3-17
Cybernetic Revolution and Forthcoming Technological Transformations (Development of Leading Technologies in the Light of Theory of Production Revolutions) Evolution of the Earth, Life, Society, Mind, Volgograd: Uchitel. In Russian (?????? ?. ?., ?????? ?. ?. ??????????????? ????????? ? ???????? ??????????????? ????????????? (???????? ??????? ?????????? ? ????? ?????? ???????????????? ?????????). ???????? ?????, ?????, ???????? , ?????? / ???. ?. ?. ??????, ?. ?. ????????, ?. ?. ??????, ?: ???????), pp.167-239, 2013. ,
, Cybernetic Revolution and Historical Process. Social Evolution & History, vol.14, issue.1, pp.125-184
Cybernetic Revolution and Forthcoming Technological Transformations (Development of the Leading Technologies in the Light of Theory of Production Revolutions) Evolution: from Big Bang to Nanorobots, by L. E. Grinin, and A. V. Korotayev, pp.256-335 ,
Cybernetic Revolution and Historical Process (Technologies of the Future in the Light of Theory of Production Revolutions) ,
??????????????? ????????? ? ???????????? ??????? (?????????? ???????? ? ????? ?????? ???????????????? ?????????) ????????? ? ???????? 1, pp.17-47 ,
Cybernetic Revolution and the Sixth Technological Wave Kondratieff Waves: Heritage and the Present, Volgograd: Uchitel. In Russian (?????? ?. ?., ?????? ?. ?. ??????????????? ????????? ? ?????? ??????????????? ?????. ?????????????? ?????: ???????? ? ????????????? / ???. ???. ?. ?. ??????, ?. ?. ????????, ?. ?. ??????????: ???????), pp.51-74 ,
From the Biface to Nanorobots. The World is on the Way to the Epoch of Self-governed Systems (History of Technologies and the Description of Their Future) Volgograd: Uchitel (Forthcoming), ?? ????? ?? ???????????. ??? ?? ???? ? ????? ??????????????? ?????? (??????? ?????????? ? ???????? ?? ????????). ?????????: ??????? [? ??????]), 2015. ,
Cybernetic Revolution and the Sixth Technological Wave. Istoricheskaya psikhologiya i sotsiologiya istorii, ??????????????? ????????? ? ?????? ??????????????? ?????. ???????????? ?????????? ? ?????????? ???????, pp.172-197 ,
Will the Global Crisis Lead to Global Transformations . 1. The Global Financial System: Pros and Cons, Journal of Globalization Studies, vol.1, issue.1, pp.70-89, 2010. ,
Globalization and the Shifting of Global Economic-Political Balance. The Dialectics of Modernity, pp.196-219 ,
DOI : 10.1080/02604027.2014.982474
, ?
Laws of History: Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting of the World and Regional Development. 3 rd ed., rev. and add. Moscow: LKI/URSS, ?????? ???????. ?????????????? ????????????? ? ??????????????? ???????? ? ????????????? ????????. 3-? ???., ????. ? ???. ?.: ???/URSS), 2010. ,
Advances in Development Reverse Inequality Trends, Journal of Globalization Studies, vol.4, issue.1, pp.105-124, 2013. ,
Advances in Development Reverse Global Inequality Trends, Globalistics and Globalization Studies, vol.3, pp.164-183, 2014. ,
On the Structure of the Present-day Convergence. Campus-Wide Information Systems, pp.41-57, 2014. ,
Global Unconditional Convergence among Larger Economies after 1998, Journal of Globalization Studies, vol.2, issue.2, pp.25-62 ,
Unconditional Convergence among Larger Economies. Great Powers, World Order and International Society: History and Future Changchun: The Institute of International Studies, pp.70-107 ,
Unconditional Convergence among Larger Economies after 1998?, Globalistics and Globalization Studies, vol.1, pp.246-280, 2012. ,
Probabilities and Lifetime Durations of Short-Stay Hospital and Nursing Home Use in the United States, 1985, Medical Care, vol.34, issue.10, pp.1018-1036, 1985. ,
DOI : 10.1097/00005650-199610000-00004
Neurotechnology and Society, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, vol.1031, pp.229-233, 2004. ,
To the System Analysis of World Dynamics: Interaction of the Center and Periphery of the World System Forecasting and Modeling of Crises and World Dynamics Moscow: LKI/URSS, ?????????? ??????? ??????? ????????: ?????????????? ?????? ? ????????? ???-???????. ??????? ? ????????????? ???????? ? ??????? ???????? / ???. ?. ?. ?????, ?. ?. ????????, ?. ?. ??????????, ?. 234?248. ?.: ???/URSS), pp.234-248, 2010. ,
Mathematical Modeling of Interaction of the Center and Periphery of the World System Forecasting and Modeling of Crises and World Dynamics, pp.277-286, 2010. ,
,
, 049] Savings Rate Life expectancy 0.001 0.003* [0.002], p.62044
, Note: Column 1 is a replication of the estimation made Lee and Hong (2010) Column 2 includes demographic variables (old-age dependency and youth dependency ratios) as explanatory variables in all three equations
, L=aggregate physical capital/labor force Source: Authors' calculations
, References
Trade, Growth and the Size of Countries . Handbook of Economic Growth, pp.1499-1542, 2003. ,
A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1950. ,
Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2011. ,
DOI : 10.3386/w16705
Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia, Asian Economic Policy Review, vol.11, issue.Suppl, pp.257-290, 2000. ,
DOI : 10.1093/wbro/11.2.151
DOES POPULATION AGEING PROMOTE FASTER ECONOMIC GROWTH?, Review of Income and Wealth, vol.1, issue.2, pp.350-372, 2008. ,
DOI : 10.1257/jel.37.1.112
Perspectives on Capital and Technology in Less Developed Countries . Contemporary Economic Analysis, pp.15-40, 1978. ,
The Determinants and Long-Term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia. ADB Economics Working Paper Series no, 2010. ,
Human Capital Accumulation in Emerging Asia, ADB Economics Working Paper Series, issue.216, 1970. ,
Economic Growth in Asia: Determinants and Prospects. ADB Economics Working Paper Series no. 220, 2010. ,
Projection of Long-term TFP Growth for 12 Asian Economies. ADB Economics Working Paper Series no, 2010. ,
Projection of Investment and Capital Stock for Asia. ADB Economics Working Paper Series, 2010. ,
Labour force ageing and productivity performance in Canada, Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'<html_ent glyph="@eacute;" ascii="e"/>conomique, vol.1, issue.2, pp.582-603, 2006. ,
DOI : 10.1007/s11123-005-2213-y
, Population Division of the Office of Economics and Social Affairs World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database, United Nations, 2009.
World Development Indicators, 2010. ,
, References
Patriot Babies: Russian Province Holds 'Conception Day, 2007. ,
Wages Are on the Rise in China as Young Workers Grow Scarce, p.1, 2007. ,
Global Ageing and the Sustainability of Public Pension Systems: An Assessment of Reform Efforts in Twelve Developed Countries, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2007. ,
The Pension Money Is Running Out: Social Security in China, International Herald Tribune, 2002. ,
Policy Interventions in Response to Below Replacement Fertility, Population Bulletin of the United Nations. Special issues, vol.4041, pp.183-193, 1999. ,
Growing Old the Hard Way: China, Policy Review, vol.136, pp.15-39, 2006. ,
The Macroeconomic Impact of Global Ageing: A New Era of Economic Frailty, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2002. ,
Ageing China: The Demographic Challenge to China's Economic Prospects, 2005. ,
An Initial Long-Term Vision for European Defence Capability and Capacity Needs Brussels: European Defense Agency, 2006. ,
Rush for Wealth in China's Cities Shatters the Ancient Assurance of Care in Old Age, 2006. ,
A Geriatric Peace? The Future of U.S. Power in a World of Aging Populations, International Security, vol.2, issue.3, pp.112-147, 2007. ,
DOI : 10.1016/S0030-4387(98)90027-8
America's Golden Years? U.S. Security in an Ageing World. Political Demography: Interests, Conflict and Institutions, pp.49-62, 2012. ,
Asian Defense Spending, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2000. ,
Germany and the Challenge of Global Ageing, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2003. ,
Population Ageing in China: An Assessment of the Economic, Social, and Political Risks. Paper prepared for the Eurasia Group China Task Force Meeting, 2005. ,
The Graying of the Middle Kingdom: The Demographics and Economics of Retirement Policy in China, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2004. ,
The Global Ageing Preparedness Index. 2 nd ed, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2013. ,
Family Support and Community Services for Older Adults in China: Integration and Partnership. Handbook of Asian Ageing, pp.405-430, 2006. ,
Baby Boomers' Poverty Trap, Monthly Economic Review, 2003. ,
, North Atlantic Treaty Organization. 2014. Financial and Economic Data Relating to NATO Defence
, Paris: Office of the Prime Minister URL: http://archives.gouvernement.fr/ villepin/en/information/latest_news_97/1st_national_conference_on_55114.html. Date accessed: 28.07 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Average Effective Age of Retirement, Office of the Prime Minister First National Conference on Public Finance OECD Countries Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). 2009. Taxes on the Average Worker in OECD Factbook, 1970.
, Social Security White Paper of China Beijing: State Council Information Office URL: http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups, State Council Information Office, 2004.
, PRC: 2004 White Paper on National Defense Beijing: State Council Information Office, State Council Information Office, 2004.
Gray Dawn: How the Coming Age Wave Will Transform America ? and the World, 1999. ,
Command of the Commons: The Military Foundation of U.S. Hegemony, International Security, vol.14, issue.2, pp.5-46, 2003. ,
DOI : 10.1162/016228800560309
Medicare Meltdown, Wall Street Journal, 2007. ,
International Update: Recent Developments in Foreign Public and Private Pensions Social Security Administration Office of Policy URL: http://www.socialsecurity.gov/policy/docs, 2004. ,
Pension Reform of PRC: Incentives, Governance, and Policy Options . Paper prepared for the Fifth Anniversary Conference on Challenges and the New Agenda for the People's Republic of China, Asian Development Bank, 2002. ,
The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context. Working Paper No. 193, Economics Department OECD, 1998. ,
, Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations? New York: United Nations Population Division, United Nations Population Division, 2000.
, United Nations Population Division World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, United Nations Population Division, 2013.
EU: Germany Must Stick to Spending Cuts to Reduce Budget Deficit by End of, 2006. ,
Savings Rate Slides as Population Ages. Yomiuri Shimbun, p.8, 2003. ,
, References
The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change, 2003. ,
, International Comparisons of GDP per Capita and per Employed person: 17 countries, 1960.
Future Demographic Dividend ? Tapping the Source of China's Economic Growth, China Economist, pp.17-24, 2009. ,
The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will Feel Better, 2011. ,
Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds. NBER Working Paper No. 18315, National Bureau of Economic Research, 2012. ,
African Demography, Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, vol.4154, issue.3, pp.215-267, 2013. ,
DOI : 10.1007/978-90-481-8918-2
What is the Demographic Dividend?, Finance and Development, vol.43, issue.3, pp.16-17, 2006. ,
Population Aging and the Generational Economy: A Global Perspective, 2011. ,
DOI : 10.4337/9780857930583
JAPAN'S TRANSITION FROM THE DEMOGRAPHIC BONUS TO THE DEMOGRAPHIC ONUS, Asian Population Studies, vol.1, issue.2, pp.207-226, 2005. ,
DOI : 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2001.00065.x
Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Transl. by Arthur Goldhammer, 2014. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01157487
Why an African Growth Miracle is Unlikely. Milken Institute Review, pp.43-54, 2014. ,
DOI : 10.3386/w20188
URL : https://doi.org/10.3386/w20188
The Solow Productivity Paradox: What do Computers do to Productivity?, The Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue canadienne d'Economique, vol.32, issue.2, pp.309-333, 1999. ,
DOI : 10.2307/136425
, References
The Coming of the Post-Industrial Society, The Educational Forum, vol.40, issue.4, 1973. ,
DOI : 10.1080/00131727609336501
Global Ageing and Challenges to Families, 2004. ,
New Perspectives on China and Ageing, 2007. ,
Social Policy and Ageing. Thousand Oaks: Sage, 2001. ,
Social Theory, Social Policy and Ageing, 2003. ,
, Cultures of Ageing, 2001.
The Welfare State in Post-Industrial Society, 2009. ,
DOI : 10.1007/978-1-4419-0066-1
Global population aging: Unequal distribution of risks in later life between developed and developing countries, Global Social Policy: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Public Policy and Social Development, vol.4, issue.1, pp.146-166, 2015. ,
DOI : 10.1016/j.jaging.2011.08.002
Factors Associated with Intergenerational Social Support among Older Adults across the World, Ageing International, vol.61, issue.5, pp.289-326, 2013. ,
DOI : 10.1093/geronb/61.5.S256
The Demography of Ageing in Bangladesh: A Scenario Analysis of Consequence, Hallym International Journal of Ageing, vol.8, issue.1, pp.1-21, 2006. ,
Attitudes towards Bearing the Cost of Care in Later Life across the World, Illness, Crisis & Loss, vol.15, issue.3, pp.49-69, 2013. ,
DOI : 10.2307/2061665
Demographic Changes, Saving, and Current Account in East Asia, Asian Economic Papers, vol.59, issue.2, pp.22-53, 2007. ,
DOI : 10.2307/2118428
World Report on Violence and Health. Geneva: World Health Organi- zation, 2002. ,
Levels of Welfarism and Intergenerational Transfers within the Family: Evidence from the Global Ageing Survey (GLAS) Global Ageing in the Twenty-First Century: Challenges, Opportunities and Implications, pp.291-308, 2013. ,
Situating Social Theory, 2008. ,
, Ageing in Post-Industrial Society 166
Global Ageing in the Twenty-First Century: Challenges, Opportunities and Implications, 2013. ,
, Disability Trends among Elderly People: Re-Assessing the Evidence in 12 OECD Countries (Interim Report) Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social, 2007.
Reconstructing Old Age, 1998. ,
Ageing, 2013. ,
, Social Theory and Aging. Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield, 2005.
Social Gerontology, 2013. ,
The Global Dynamics of Aging, 2012. ,
Aging in Asia, 2009. ,
Ageing and Globalization: A Global Analysis, Journal of Globalization Studies, vol.4, issue.1, pp.150-159, 2013. ,
The Ageing Scottish Population: Trends, Consequences, Responses, Canadian Studies in Population, vol.35, issue.2, pp.291-310, 2008. ,
DOI : 10.25336/P6NC93
The Globalization of Nothing, 2007. ,
Department of Economic and Social Affair, Population Division, World Population Ageing United Nations, 1950. ,
Ageing in the Twenty-First Century: A Celebration and a Challenge, United Nations Population Fund and Help Age International ,
The Politics of Ageing in Europe, 2000. ,
, References
Guns for the Sultan: Military Power and the Weapons Industry in the Ottoman Empire, 2008. ,
, Wages, Prices, and Living Standards in China, Japan, and Europe, pp.1738-1925, 2011.
The Gunpowder Age: Chine, Military Innovation, and the Rise of the West in World History, 2015. ,
ReOrient: Global Economy in the Asian Age, 1998. ,
Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World, 1991. ,
Efflorescences and Economic Growth in World History: Rethinking the "Rise of the West" and the Industrial Revolution, Journal of World History, vol.13, issue.2, pp.323-389, 2002. ,
DOI : 10.1353/jwh.2002.0034
Capitalist Origins, the Advent of Modernity, and Coherent Explanation: A Response to Joseph M, Bryant. Canadian Journal of Sociology Cahiers Canadiens de Sociologie, vol.33, issue.1, pp.119-133, 2008. ,
Why Europe? The Rise of the West in Global History, pp.1500-1850, 2008. ,
Production revolutions and the periodization of history, Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, vol.282, issue.2, pp.75-120, 2007. ,
DOI : 10.1134/S1019331607020062
The Evolution of Statehood. From Early State to Global Society, 2011. ,
Macrohistory and Globalization, 2012. ,
Political Development of the World System: A Formal Quantitative Analysis. History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies, pp.63-114, 2006. ,
A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development , and the, Economic Crisis. Structure and Dynamics, vol.4, issue.1, pp.3-579, 2008. ,
Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth. Moscow: KomKni- ga, 2006. ,
Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends, 2006. ,
DOI : 10.21237/c7clio7230484
URL : https://cloudfront.escholarship.org/dist/prd/content/qt0xt1v06c/qt0xt1v06c.pdf?t=omie7a
The Wealth and Poverty of Nations, 1998. ,
Before the Great Divergence? Comparing the Yangzi Delta and the Netherlands at the Beginning of the Nineteenth Century, The Journal of Economic History, vol.3, issue.04, pp.956-989, 2012. ,
DOI : 10.1016/j.eeh.2009.04.005
The Origins of the Modern World. A Global and Ecological Narrative, 2002. ,
The Rise of the West: A History of the Human Community, 1963. ,
DOI : 10.7208/chicago/9780226561615.001.0001
The Rise of the West after Twenty-Five Years, Journal of World History, vol.1, issue.1, pp.1-21, 1990. ,
Introduction to the Great Divergence. China, Europe, and the Making of the Modern World Economy, 2000. ,
DOI : 10.1002/9780470774212.ch29
Beyond the East-West Binary: Resituating Development Paths in the Eighteenth-Century World, The Journal of Asian Studies, vol.61, issue.2, pp.539-590, 2002. ,
DOI : 10.2307/2700300
Before Copernicus: The Cultures and Contexts of Scientific Learning in the Fifteenth Century, 2015. ,
Population Density and Warfare: A Reconsideration, Social Evolution & History, vol.5, issue.2, pp.121-158, 2006. ,
Secular Cycles, 2009. ,
DOI : 10.1515/9781400830688
Via Peking Back to Manchester, Britain, the Industrial Revolution, and Chin?, 2003. ,
The California School and Beyond: How to Study the Great Divergence?, History Compass, vol.XV, issue.2, pp.730-751, 2010. ,
DOI : 10.1017/CBO9781139168045
China Transformed: Historical Change and the Limits of the European Experience, 1997. ,
, History & Mathematics: Demography & Ageing, vol.2015, pp.172-174
His research interests include the effects of international migration on the population and economy of receiving countries, the meaning of demographic transition and the future of the census. His most recent paper 'The Death of the West: ?n Alternative View' (with Stuart Basten) was published in a special edition of Population Studies entitled Population: The Long View, 2015. ,
Folomeyeva is Research Fellow at the International Laboratory for Political Demography and Social Macrodynamics at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. Her primary research interests are political demography, social macrodynamics, and population ag?ing ,
Institute for Public Policy and Director of Research Laboratory on Political Demography and Social Macrodynamics at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. He is an author or editor of 13 books and over 140 research articles. His primary research interests are the effects of population change on political stability and economic growth, economic history, global population cycles, the causes and outcomes of revolutions, and improving governance in developing nations ,
Grinin is Senior Research Professor at the Institute for Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow and Senior Research Professor at the Laboratory for Destabilization Risk Monitoring at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. He is the Editor-in-Chief of the journal Age of Globalization (in Russian), as well as a co-editor of the international journals Social Evolution & History and the Journal of Globalization Studies. Dr. Grinin is the author of more than 400 scholarly publications in Russian and English, including 27 monographs, These monographs include Philosophy, Sociology, and the Theory of History Russian); Productive Forces and Historical Process, 2006. ,
, Social Macroevolution: World System Transformations Markov and A. Korotayev); Global Crisis in Retrospective: A Brief History of Upswings and Crises (2010, in Russian, with A. Korotayev); The Evolution of Statehood: From Early State to Global Society (2011); The Cycles of Development of Modern World System); From Confucius to Comte: The Formation of the Theory, State and Historical Process (3 vols Russian ); Macrohistory and Globalization (2012); Cycles, Crises, and Traps of the Modern World-System Russian, with A. Korotayev), and Great Divergence and Great Convergence, 2008.
Haas is Professor of Political Science at Duquesne University in Pittsburgh. He formerly was a National Security Fellow at the Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard University. He is the author of The Clash of Ideologies ,