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A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Some Demographic Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modernizing Social Systems
Abstract : The escape from the 'Malthusian trap' is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2015– 2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.
Cited literature [170 references]
https://hal-hprints.archives-ouvertes.fr/hprints-01863067
Contributor : Leonid Grinin Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Tuesday, August 28, 2018 - 10:13:43 AM
Last modification on : Tuesday, July 14, 2020 - 11:04:08 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Thursday, November 29, 2018 - 1:29:20 PM
Contributor : Leonid Grinin Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Tuesday, August 28, 2018 - 10:13:43 AM
Last modification on : Tuesday, July 14, 2020 - 11:04:08 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Thursday, November 29, 2018 - 1:29:20 PM
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201-267.pdf
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