A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Some Demographic Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modernizing Social Systems

Andrey Korotayev 1 Sergey Malkov Leonid Grinin 1
1 RAS - Russian Academy of Sciences [Moscow]
Abstract : The escape from the 'Malthusian trap' is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2015– 2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.
Keywords : political demography political dynamics modernization instability Malthusian trap mathematical modeling youth bulge urbanization Africa demographic dynamics demographic transition
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Andrey Korotayev, Sergey Malkov, Leonid Grinin. A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Some Demographic Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modernizing Social Systems. Leonid Grinin, Andrey V. Korotayev History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles. , 2014, ⟨Uchitel⟩, pp.201-267, 2014, 978-5-7057-4223-3. ⟨hprints-01863067⟩

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