Interaction between Kondratieff Waves and Juglar Cycles - hprints.org
Book Sections Year : 2014

Interaction between Kondratieff Waves and Juglar Cycles

Abstract

Some important correlations between medium-term economic cycles (7– 11 years) known as Juglar cycles and long (40–60 years) Kondratieff cycles are presented in this paper. The research into the history of this issue shows that this aspect is insufficiently studied. Meanwhile, in our opinion, it can significantly clarify both the reasons of alternation of upswing and downswing phases in K-waves and the reasons of relative stability of the length of these waves. It also can provide the certain means for forecasting. The authors show that adjacent 2–4 medium cycles form the system the important characteristic of which is the dynamics of economic trend. The latter can be upswing (active) or downswing (depressive). The mechanisms of formation of such medium-term trends and changing tendencies are explained. The presence of such clusters of medium cycles (general duration of which is 20–30 years) determines to a large degree the long-wave dynamics and the characteristics of its timing. Thus, not medium-term J-cycles depend on the character of K-wave phase as Kondratieff supposed, but the character of the cluster of J-cycles determines significantly the character of K-wave phases.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
025-095.pdf (755.64 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origin Explicit agreement for this submission
Loading...

Dates and versions

hprints-01863102 , version 1 (28-08-2018)

Identifiers

  • HAL Id : hprints-01863102 , version 1

Cite

Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev. Interaction between Kondratieff Waves and Juglar Cycles. Leonid Grinin. Kondratieff Waves. Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff. Yearbook, 2014, Leonid Grinin, pp.25 - 95, 2014, 978-5-7057-4282-0. ⟨hprints-01863102⟩

Collections

HIPHISCITECH
147 View
1058 Download

Share

More