Interaction between Kondratieff Waves and Juglar Cycles

Leonid Grinin (1) , Andrey Korotayev (1)

1 RAS - Russian Academy of Sciences [Moscow]

Some important correlations between medium-term economic cycles (7– 11 years) known as Juglar cycles and long (40–60 years) Kondratieff cycles are presented in this paper. The research into the history of this issue shows that this aspect is insufficiently studied. Meanwhile, in our opinion, it can significantly clarify both the reasons of alternation of upswing and downswing phases in K-waves and the reasons of relative stability of the length of these waves. It also can provide the certain means for forecasting. The authors show that adjacent 2–4 medium cycles form the system the important characteristic of which is the dynamics of economic trend. The latter can be upswing (active) or downswing (depressive). The mechanisms of formation of such medium-term trends and changing tendencies are explained. The presence of such clusters of medium cycles (general duration of which is 20–30 years) determines to a large degree the long-wave dynamics and the characteristics of its timing. Thus, not medium-term J-cycles depend on the character of K-wave phase as Kondratieff supposed, but the character of the cluster of J-cycles determines significantly the character of K-wave phases.

Keywords: medium-term cycles; Juglar cycles; long cycles of Kondratieff; long; waves; downswing phase; upswing phase; crisis; resources; business strategies; generations of businessmen

Domains: History, Philosophy and Sociology of Sciences; History; Philosophy

Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev. Interaction between Kondratieff Waves and Juglar Cycles. Leonid Grinin. Kondratieff Waves. Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff. Yearbook, 2014, Leonid Grinin, pp.25 - 95, 2014, 978-5-7057-4282-0. ⟨hprints-01863102⟩